About DubsRank
What this is
DubsRank ranks every Super Smash Bros. Melee doubles player with a rating built only from doubles results. Singles rankings are everywhere; doubles is its own game, with its own specialists, partnerships, and upsets, and it deserves its own leaderboard. The goal is a fair, data-driven picture of who actually wins doubles sets: individually, as teams, and over time.
How the ratings work
Every doubles set from start.gg and parry.gg is replayed in the order it happened. For now, the data covers results from 2015 to the present, so older history isn't counted yet. Each player carries their own rating, and a team's chance of winning a set comes from both partners' ratings. Wins against stronger teams count for more, and the model also accounts for things like tournament size and strength, and how new a player is. The same engine powers the player and team rankings, win-rate stats, achievements, and teammate recommendations on this site.
How accurate is it?
We measure accuracy with the Brier score, a standard way to grade win predictions: 0 would be perfect, and always guessing 50/50 scores 0.25. DubsRank's predictions score about 0.14. That's good (the model is well-calibrated and precise), but it isn't perfect, and it's not as sharp as the best singles models. In its current state, it's around 85% accurate at predicting who wins a set.
Doubles is harder to predict: every set involves four players and partnerships change constantly. The biggest hurdles for the algorithm are players and tournaments with little data. A player with only a handful of recorded sets, or an event full of unknown players, gives the model much less to go on.
Support the project
DubsRank is a passion project. If you enjoy it and want to help keep it running and improving, you can support me here: paypal.me/meticu